The African NationalCongress (ANC) Youth League President has in the past five years experienced ameteoric rise to national, if not international recognition.
So love him or hatehim, you simply cannot ignore him at all.
In a country that is at crossroads in terms of being decisive in terms of both its identity and itsmorality, Malema appears to be slowly emerging as a compass for the country’snext future direction.
Just a few months ago, he wasoverwhelmingly given a new mandate to be the leader of the highly vocal YouthLeague at its major conference in June at Midrand.
But perhaps what is moresignificant is the manner in which he retained the presidency of the youthmovement. Unlike at the previous congress at Mangaung during April 2008, wherehe won a hotly disputed contest against Saki Mofokeng, this time Malema rompedto victory virtually unchallenged.
The ANC Youth League Chairperson for theGauteng province Lebogang Maile was rumoured to be the only possible credible challengerto Malema but when even his own province nominated his would be rival as itspreferred candidate, the race was immediately declared a no-contest.
So as fate would have it, Malema was re-elected unopposed after being resoundingly backed by all the provincesof the youth movement.
Traditionally, the Youth Leagueis highly regarded as a serious kingmaker in the higher echelons of ANCpolitics and Malema has moved fast to reassert its role in this regard. In athinly veiled threat to the ANC President Jacob Zuma, he declared during hisvictory speech on 16th June that the Youth League would only backcandidates who also publicly backed its policy positions.
Pointedly the two major positionsthat the youth movement are already pushing for seem to be at logger heads withZuma’s interests.
Firstly, the youth league ispushing for a radical leadership renewal at the centenary 2012 conference inMangaung. Specifically they are calling for youth candidates to dominate thenew leadership that will be elected at the congress. According to the plan, theYouth League will ensure that most of the old guard will be challenged byyounger candidates who will be fully backed it.
In particular, they are seekingfor the election of their former leader, the firebrand known as Fikile Mbalulaas the new Secretary General. In so doing, they find themselves at directloggerhead with the Young Communist League (YCL), the South African CommunistParty (SACP) and potentially the Congress of South African Trade Unions(COSATU) who are most likely to re-affirm their support for the incumbent,Gwede Mantashe.
Unenviably, Zuma has to decidewhether to side with the Youth League or the traditional Alliance partners.This is a very tough call for him to make since it could make or break him atthe 2012 Congress if he backs the losing horse.
Secondly, the Youth League appearsmore determined than ever to continue on their unequivocal stance onnationalisation with the racially skewed mining industry as it primary target.Under Zuma’s leadership, the ANC appears to be more diplomatic and ambivalenton its stance. This is in direct contrast to the decisive position that theYouth League has taken already.
Curiously though, while the YouthLeague stance has been dismissed as populist by many critics, it is actually amore realistic approach from a broader national perspective. A lot of SouthAfricans especially the black majorities are most likely to be swayed by theYouth League’s radical rhetoric as it is. Significantly it is the black youthwho are wallowing in the muddy waters of ever growing unemployment who are mostlikely to prove to be the most vocal supporters of the Youth League.
So it appears that on thismatter, Malema and his colleagues are definitely gauging the restless and volatilemood in the country. In this regard, it appears that the Youth League hassuccessfully out manoeuvred the supposedly leftist elements in the Alliancesuch as the YCL, SACP and COSATU.
And so it happens that instrategically positioning itself as the most relevant political institution atgrassroots community level, the Youth League (read Malema!) has also createdseveral other enemies in the same process.
A mere glance at the political dynamicswithin the Alliance politics, clearly suggests that the relationship betweenthe Youth League and the partners has soured in the last few years. There is nolove lost between the Youth league and the likes of YCL, SACP and COSATU.
The mood in the top brass alsoappears opaque and less crystal at the moment. However it appears that theYouth League also has a lot of backers there. In particular it seems Mbalula and the Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe have both emerged as the youthmovement’s point persons.
Another dark horse, the veteran WinnieMadikizela-Mandela has also been a close ally for Malema of late. She was seenon his side and even kissed him in public in spectacular show of strong supportduring the ‘hate speech’ trial that emanated from his controversial song ‘DubulaIbhunu’ (literally, shoot the Boer!)
Outside the ANC and Alliance politics,the Youth League has obvious enemies such as a hostile media which the youthmovement perceives to be largely dominated by the conservative and patriarchal whiteestablishment.
The Youth League appears to haveno sympathisers in the opposition parties ranks with the Democratic Alliance asits most vocal nemesis.
It is in this context that Malemaand the Youth League find themselves in the heat of battle at the moment. This isthe battle for the soul and future of the ANC that will culminate in the electiveMangaung conference in 2012.
The rise in the number of attackson both Malema and the Youth League are mere symptoms of a bigger politicalbattle as in the case of Zuma in the run up to the Polokwane conference in2007.
The big question now is whetherMalema has the same level of conviction, dexterity and may be luck, to survivethe onslaught just as Zuma did with both the serious rape and corruptioncharges in 2005.
As they say the more thingschange, the more they stay the same. Indeed history keeps repeating itselfespecially when it comes to the politics of the ANC.
These are very interesting timesto live in South Africa. Watch this space for more updated analysis as thepolitical drama continues to unfold as the race hots up for electoral glory at Mangaung in 2012.
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